Rich Rodriguez and other coaches

I have always felt that you really start to judge a coach on how their team does in their second season. I have had this in my head based on the performances of Jim Tressel, Bob Stoops, Urban Meyer, Nick Saban, and Pete Carroll during their second years and their current schools. I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a number coaches record in their second years (and their schools records for the previous five before they were hired) and compare their performance to that of Rich Rodriguez.

This is not necessarily the fairest comparison because every situation is different and looking solely at record does not take into account of things like strength of schedule. Still I think that the examples listed are useful in evaluating the tenure of Rich Rodriguez. I put the down the records for the coaches listed above and put in a few others as well. Les Miles and Jim Harbaugh were both listed because they are Michigan alums who are head coaches at BCS conferences. I included Mike Leach because I wanted an example of a spread team. Tedford is in there because of the rapid improvement that Cal showed under him. Texas was included because they are one of the top programs in the nation and I included Michigan St so I could get a comparison from down the road in East Lansing.


Alabama (Nick Saban)
2003 7-5
2002 10-3
2004 6-6
2005 10-2
2006 6-7

After coaching change:
2007 7-6
2008 12-2

Ohio State (Jim Tressel)
1996 11-1
1997 10-3
1998 11-1
1999 6-6
2000 8-4

After coaching change:
2001 7-5
2002 14-0

USC (Pete Carroll)
1996 6-6
1997 6-5
1998 8-5
1999 6-6
2000 5-7

After coaching change:
2001 6-6
2002 11-2

Florida (Urban Meyer)
2000 10-3
2001 10-2
2002 8-5
2003 8-5
2004 7-5

After coaching change:
2005 9-3
2006 13-1

Texas Tech (Mike Leach)
1995 9-3
1996 7-5
1997 6-5
1998 7-4
1999 6-5

After coaching change:
2000 7-6
2001 7-5


Cal (Jeff Tedford)
1997 3-8
1998 5-6
1999 0-11
2000 3-8
2001 1-10

After coaching change:
2002 7-5
2003 8-6

Oklahoma (Bob Stoops)
1994 6-6
1995 5-5-1
1996 3-8
1997 4-8
1998 5-6

After coaching change:
1999 7-5
2000 13-0

LSU (Les Miles)
2000 8-4
2001 10-3
2002 8-5
2003 13-1
2004 9-3

After coaching change:
2005 11-2
2006 11-2

Stanford (Jim Harbaugh)
2002 2-9
2003 4-7
2004 4-7
2005 5-6
2006 1-11

After coaching change:
2007 4-8
2008 5-7

Texas (Mack Brown)

1993 5-5-1
1994 8-4
1995 10-2-1
1996 8-5
1997 4-7

After coaching change:
1998 9-3
1999 9-5

Michigan State (Mark Dantonio)

2002 4-8
2003 8-5
2004 5-7
2005 5-6
2006 4-8

After coaching change:
2007 7-6
2008 9-4

Michigan (Rich Rodriguez)

2003 10-3
2004 9-3
2005 7-5
2006 11-2
2007 9-4

After coaching change:
2008 3-9
2009 5-4

There were a few other coaches I could have listed who had success later in their tenure but didn't because showing their record during their second season would have been shown anything. In particular these coaches were Mark Mangino, Gary Pinkel, Greg Schiano, and Kirk Ferentz. Alot of people think that their wasn't alot of talent for Rich Rodriguez to work with, but I still don't think the Michigan situation was very comparable to Kansas, Missouri, or Rutgers. Kirk Ferentz went from 1-10 to 3-9 to 7-5 to 11-2 (and had two great seasons after that as well)

Charlie Weis wasn't there despite his decent record in his second year because of his sharp drop off later. I didn't include Brian Kelly because everyone is pretty familiar with his success and Mark Dantonio was started to do alright at Cincinnati before Kelly came. Paul Johnson was fairly successful his first year and I felt like there was no reason to look at him. Other than the exceptions mentioned, I could not think of any coaches who took over a program and really started to get it done in the third season or later (maybe Wake Forest, I am open to any suggestions). This is not to say that Rich Rodriguez will not be successful, just that our lack of progress in year 2 is a bit concerning.

Alot of these teams may not be the best comparison and it may be better to take a look at more spread teams that made drastic changes in their offense and that maybe an area for further research. Otherwise I think that the above numbers speak for themselves and don't really need much analysis. I think the most impressive jobs were probably done by Pete Carroll, Jeff Tedford, and Bob Stoops.

However, as long as Bill Martin is the athletic director Rich Rodriguez is not going anywhere. I mean Tommy Amaker was given six years to try and make it work. A new athletic director however is kind of an unknown quantity and it is unknown as to what standard he would hold a coach to.