The Spread Offense

Over the last few years more and more college football teams have moved towards the spread offense.  This has made it very difficult for the NFL to evaluate a number of players. 

One guy that people have alot of questions about is Tim Tebow.  There is no debate that he is one of best college football players in recent memory.  There will clearly be a place for him in the NFL. Alot of people question whether or not he will be able to play quarterback in the NFL.  Looking at his career thus far, I don't think so.   Tebow has yet to show the ability to make the throws that he would have to make in the NFL.  Florida's offense doesn't require him to and he struggles when forced to make the tougher throws.  Tebow is a great runner, but he won't be able to run as much in the NFL.

I've heard some comparisons between Tebow and Ben Roethlisberger.  I just don't see it.  They were completely different college players.  Roethlisberger barely ran at all and played in a pro-style offense.  And he is a much better passer than Tebow.   

The good news is that Tebow has another year to improve all this.  And Florida brought in a great qb coach in Scott Loefler.  Whatever team drafts Tebow will give him a chance at QB.  But if wants to stick at quarterback, he is going to need to become a better passer.   

I guess I would say that I am not really a fan of the spread offense.  Teams started using because they had lesser talent and needed to find ways to create mismatches.  A great example of this was Northwestern's 54-51 victory over Michigan in 2000. The spread offense really helped Northwestern overcome a talent disadvantage.  Though I would note that this was against one of the worst Michigan defenses I have ever seen.  

In recent years teams like Florida, Oklahoma, and Texas have had alot of success running the spread.  And Michigan brought in Rich Rodriguez to transition them to the spread offense.  I still say that I have two major concerns with the spread.

The first concern is that you have a much higher probability of the quarterback getting hurt.  And when your offense is so dependent on one player, an injury kills you.  Texas and Florida did well because they had bigger quarterbacks in Tim Tebow and Vince Young.  But guys like that don't grow on trees.  

In 2007, Oregon appeared to have the best team in college football.  But once Dennis Dixon got hurt, they completely fell apart.  And you saw something similar with Pat White at West Virginia.  They would always lose one or two games a year where Pat White was beat up and couldn't play.  In the NFL this risk is even greater.  You cannot let your quarterback get hit like he would in the spread offense.  

Another problem that I have with the spread is that a defense with good athletes will be able to shut it down.  You saw this in the National Championship game last year where Florida held the Oklahoma offense to 14 points.  South Florida was another team with good athletes that always shut down Rich Rodriguez when he was at West Virgina.  

There are few college teams with the athletes to stop the spread.  The case in the NFL is a bit different.  There are great players across the board and you don't really see as many mismatches.  There is a reason that no one in the NFL runs the spread.  Guys like Vince Young and Michael Vick were great college quarterbacks who are ideally suited to run the spread.  But their NFL play has been inconsistent.  

You could make the argument that the undefeated Patriots ran a version of the spread offense.  And they did.  What made it work was the amount of talent they had across the board.  With Tom Brady, a good offensive line, and receivers like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth they were probably uniquely suited to run that offense.  This is a combination that you do not see very often in the NFL.