The Armenian Genocide

Barack Obama faces a difficult choice in deciding whether or not to acknowledge the Armenian Genocide by the Turks.   Turkey has always denied that a genocide occurred and the United States has continuously refused to use the word genocide. 

While I'm not an expert on the history, from what I understand the general consensus amongst historians that a genocide did occur.  During the campaign Obama promised Armenians that as president he would acknowledge the Armenian genocide.  Now that he is president it looks like he may not follow through with this promise. 

Turkey is an important country in alot ways.  They are a moderate Muslim ally with the second largest army in NATO.  They have decently functioning democracy, unlike many of their brethren in the Islamic world.  We have a key airbase there that's crucial to supporting our troops in Iraq.  And they have the potential to play a big role in the Middle Eastern Peace Process.

Israel and Turkey have always had an interesting relationship.  The countries have close ties and the Israel lobby has helped block any kind of congressional resolution to acknowledge the Armenian genocide.  Before the whole Gaza mess, Turkey was helping to broker negotiations between Syria and Israel.  I think that more so than any other country, Turkey is trusted by both nations.  And while the negotiations were cut off, there has been talk of them picking up again.  

Peace between Syria and Israel would an important first step towards peace in entire region. Israel would have one less enemy to worry about and Syria would have to end their support of terrorist organizations within Israel.  And Iran would be left isolated, which would hopefully lead to them making some sort of deal with the United States.   

Acknowledging the Armenian genocide would threaten all of the above.  Turkey would be pretty upset and we would lose their support on issues where we need their help.  We could even lose our airbase within the country.  At the same time, I don't like the idea of ignoring the fact that a genocide occurred.  And Turkey shares a number of common interests with the United States and they want our support on things like getting into the EU.  While they would definitely be upset and the relationship could get chilly, they may not take the drastic steps that some have suggested.      

Currently the Turks and Armenians are trying to negotiate some kind of settlement on the genocide question.  At least for now, Obama looks like he is going to let the negotiations play themselves out.